Log Skeletons: A Classification Approach to Process Discovery

To test the effectiveness of process discovery algorithms, a Process Discovery Contest (PDC) has been set up. This PDC uses a classification approach to measure this effectiveness: The better the discovered model can classify whether or not a new trace conforms to the event log, the better the discovery algorithm is supposed to be. Unfortunately, even the state-of-the-art fully-automated discovery algorithms score poorly on this classification. Even the best of these algorithms, the Inductive Miner, scored only 147 correct classified traces out of 200 traces on the PDC of 2017. This paper introduces the rule-based log skeleton model, which is closely related to the Declare constraint model, together with a way to classify traces using this model. This classification using log skeletons is shown to score better on the PDC of 2017 than state-of-the-art discovery algorithms: 194 out of 200. As a result, one can argue that the fully-automated algorithm to construct (or: discover) a log skeleton from an event log outperforms existing state-of-the-art fully-automated discovery algorithms.Comment: 16 pages with 9 figures, followed by an appendix of 14 pages with 17 figure

Task Elimination may Actually Increase Throughput Time

The well-known Task Elimination redesign principle suggests to remove unnecessary tasks from a process to improve on time and cost. Although there seems to be a general consensus that removing work can only improve the throughput time of the process, this paper shows that this is not necessarily the case by providing an example that uses plain M/M/c activities. This paper also shows that the Task Automation and Parallelism redesign principles may also lead to longer throughput times. Finally, apart from these negative results, the paper also show under which assumption these redesign principles indeed can only improve the throughput time

Country characteristics and the incidence of capital income taxation on wages: an empirical assessment

This paper examines the incidence of corporate income taxes on wages using data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for 13 OECD countries. Within a wage-bargaining framework, our econometric analysis shows that a substantial share of the corporate tax burden is shifted from capital to labour. However, the magnitude of this shift is influenced importantly by country characteristics affecting the process of wage determination, such as the degree of capital mobility, a country's relative influence over the world price of output and trade unions’ strength

A panel analysis of UK industrial company failure

We examine the failure determinants for large quoted UK industrials using a panel data set comprising 539 firms observed over the period 1988-93. The empirical design employs data from company accounts and is based on Chamberlain’s conditional binomial logit model, which allows for unobservable, firm-specific, time-invariant factors associated with failure risk. We find a noticeable degree of heterogeneity across the sample companies. Our panel results show that, after controlling for unobservables, lower liquidity measured by the quick assets ratio, slower turnover proxied by the ratio of debtors turnover, and profitability were linked to the higher risk of insolvency in the analysis period. The findings appear to support the proposition that the current cash-flow considerations, rather than the future prospects of the firm, determined company failures over the 1990s recession

Phase II trial of natalizumab for the treatment of anti-Hu associated paraneoplastic neurological syndromes

BACKGROUND: Paraneoplastic neurological syndromes with anti-Hu antibodies (Hu-PNS) have a very poor prognosis: more than half of the patients become bedridden and median survival is less than 12 months. Several lines of evidence suggest a pathogenic T cell-mediated immune response. Therefore, we conducted a prospective open-label phase II trial with natalizumab. METHODS: Twenty Hu-PNS patients with progressive disease were treated with a maximum of three monthly natalizumab cycles (300 mg). The primary outcome measure was functional improvement, this was defined as at least one point decrease in modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at the last treatment visit. In addition, treatment response was assessed wherein a mRS score ≤3 after treatment was defined as treatment responsive. RESULTS: The median age at onset was 67.8 years (SD 8.4) with a female predominance (n = 17, 85%). The median time from symptom onset to Hu-PNS diagnosis was 5 months (IQR 2–11). Most patients had subacute sensory neuronopathy (n = 15, 75%), with a median mRS of 4 at baseline. Thirteen patients had a tumor, all small cell lung cancer. After natalizumab treatment, two patients (10%) showed functional improvement. Of the remaining patients, 60% had a stable functional outcome, while 30% showed further deterioration. Treatment response was classified as positive in nine patients (45%). CONCLUSIONS: Natalizumab may ameliorate the disease course in Hu-PNS, but no superior effects above other reported immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory were observed. More effective treatment modalities are highly needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2014-000675-13/N

Patient satisfaction in treatment of non-complex fractures and dislocations in general practice in the Netherlands:prospective cohort study protocol

INTRODUCTION: Diagnosis and treatment of fractures and dislocations are mostly performed in hospital settings. However, equal care for patients with non--complex fractures or dislocations ('minor trauma care') may be provided in general practice. While substitution of care from secondary to primary care settings is stimulated by governments and insurers, it is unknown what the effects are on patient satisfaction level. Therefore, our primary objective is to determine the effect of minor trauma care delivered in a general practice as compared with a hospital on patient satisfaction. Secondary objectives are to assess the effects on treatment outcomes, cost-effectiveness and time consumption. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In a prospective cohort study, we will include 200 patients aged 12 and over with an X-ray confirmed diagnosis of a non--complex fracture or dislocation out of whom 100 treated in a general practice and 100 in a secondary care hospital, both located in the Netherlands. All treatment procedures and follow-up will be done in accordance to the hospital's standards of trauma care. Study assessments will be performed pre-treatment, and 1, 6 and 12 weeks after treatment. Data collected include demographics, patient satisfaction and patient-reported outcomes including physical functioning, complications, pain scores and treatment-related costs. The primary outcome patient satisfaction measured at 12 weeks will be compared between the settings and additionally multivariable regression will be performed to assess potential confounding effects of unbalanced prognostic factors. Treatment outcomes and time consumption will be analysed following the same approach while cost-effectiveness will be assessed using an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Subsequently, results will be discussed using focus groups consisting of patients (n=15) and healthcare providers. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Medical Ethics Committee from the University Medical Center Groningen reviewed this study protocol and granted exemption from ethical approval (METc UMCG 2017/277). Study results will be presented at (inter)national conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03506958; Pre-results

Nursing home care for people with dementia and residents' quality of life, quality of care and staff well-being: Design of the Living Arrangements for people with Dementia (LAD) - study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is limited information available on how characteristics of the organization of nursing home care and especially group living home care and staff ratio contribute to care staff well being, quality of care and residents' quality of life. Furthermore, it is unknown what the consequences of the increasingly small scale organization of care are for the amount of care staff required in 2030 when there will be much more older people with dementia.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This manuscript describes the design of the 'Living Arrangements for people with Dementia study' (LAD-study). The aim of this study is to include living arrangements from every part of this spectrum, ranging from large scale nursing homes to small group living homes. The LAD-study exists of quantitative and qualitative research. Primary outcomes of the quantitative study are wellbeing of care staff, quality of care and quality of life of residents. Furthermore, data concerning staff ratio and characteristics of the living arrangements such as group living home care characteristics are assessed. To get more in-depth insight into the barriers and facilitators in living arrangements for people with dementia to provide good care, focus groups and Dementia Care Mapping are carried out.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Results of this study are important for policymakers, directors and staff of living arrangements providing nursing home care to people with dementia and essential for the development of methods to improve quality of care, residents' and staff well-being. Data collection will be repeated every two years, to generate knowledge on the results of changing policies in this field.</p

External validation of a model to predict the survival of patients presenting with a spinal epidural metastasis

The surgical treatment of spinal metastases is evolving. The major problem is the selection of patients who may benefit from surgical treatment. One of the criteria is an expected survival of at least 3 months. A prediction model has been previously developed. The present study has been performed in order to validate externally the model and to demonstrate that this model can be generalized to other institutions and other countries than the Netherlands. Data of 356 patients from five centers in Germany, Spain, Sweden, and the Netherlands who were treated for metastatic epidural spinal cord compression were collected. Hazard ratios in the test population corresponded with those of the developmental population. However, the observed and the expected survival were different. Analysis revealed that the baseline hazard function was significantly different. This tempted us to combine the data and develop a new prediction model. Estimating iteratively, a baseline hazard was composed. An adapted prediction model is presented. External validation of a prediction model revealed a difference in expected survival, although the relative contribution of the specific hazard ratios was the same as in the developmental population. This study emphasized the need to check the baseline hazard function in external validation. A new model has been developed using an estimated baseline hazar